2024 Stuff+ Update Notes: Part 2 (Bullpen)
Recently, Eno Sarris and Jordan Rosenblum announced updates to their 2024 Stuff+ model that included multiple refinements, including:
Re-training the model on 2023 pitch data (allowing for the model to more accurately account for anomalies)
Adjustments for air density and altitude’s impact on pitch characteristics
Platoon split adjustments for individual pitches
i.e. the usability of a pitch when throwing to both right- and left-handed batters
The ability to differentiate between Sliders & Sweepers
Check out the difference between the two pitches here.
For a more detailed breakdown of the exact adjustments made for 2024 Stuff+, read Eno’s awesome write-up (including his 2024 Fantasy SP Rankings) and give both Eno & Jordan a follow on Twitter (linked above).
However, if you (like me) are more focused on what these changes mean for the Cincinnati Reds’ pitchers, specifically. Keep on reading below!
Today’s focus? The Reds’ bullpen.
Alexis Diaz
Change of Note: 75 SL Stuff+ -> 132.9 SL Stuff+
Alexis Diaz may have been the poster child for the need to run an update on Stuff+ for 2024. Diaz’s electric start to 2023 was one of the biggest stories in baseball. However, while his results were consistently dominant, his Stuff+ grades were anything but that.
Diaz achieves 100th percentile Extension on his pitches and also has a 4SFB that sits in the 99th percentile in Spin Rate. Because of these outlier characteristics, Diaz saw wild fluctuations in the Stuff+ grades on his pitches from appearance-to-appearance — occasionally even seeing negative numbers in performances where he dominated the competition.
This latest update appears to be a bit more in line with reality. Diaz’s SL achieved some of the best results of any pitch in baseball last season, and also has raving reviews from hitters around the league. With the latest Stuff+ update nearly doubling the grade on the pitch, the new updated model appears to pass the initial “sniff test”.
Fernando Cruz
Change of Note: 92 SPL Stuff+ -> 155.4 SPL Stuff+ (!)
Speaking of pitches grading out closer to their results — that’s one heck of a jump for Fernando Cruz’s Splitter. Cruz’s SPL was one of the single best pitches in all of baseball last season by Whiff%, K%, and preventing hard contact, so it’s encouraging to see it grade out near the best SPLs in all of baseball.
The pitch itself is pretty unique, so (like Alexis Diaz’s pitch mix) it makes sense that the model needed a full season’s worth of data to really capture the entirety of the pitch. Check out how much variance there is in the pitch’s movement profile below:
Cruz’s SPL ranges from -8 to +17in of vMov and -2 to +14in of hMov
Overall, the largest takeaway we can gather from Cruz’s grades is that last season was not a fluke. Cruz has one of the most unique and dominant pitches in all of baseball and — if he continue to control & harness its abilities — he should be well-suited to have a breakout campaign in 2024.
Sam Moll
Change of Note: 83 FF Stuff+ -> 150.3 FF Stuff+ (!)
Sam Moll was a bit of an enigma when he came over to the Reds. First, the Reds traded a (relatively) highly touted pitching prospect in Joe Boyle for Moll, despite Moll being a relative unknown to the larger baseball world. To the best of everyone’s knowledge, the move was done out of 1) necessity for a LHRP and 2) Moll’s team control (along with a distrust of Boyle developing big league command). Despite the doubters, Moll then proceeded to come to Cincinnati and absolutely dominate the competition… but still wasn’t beloved by the Stuff+ model.
That has now changed. In the latest update, Moll’s 4SFB has jumped to an astronomical 150.3 Stuff+ — one of the best 4SFB grades in all of baseball. Moll is unique in that — as a polar opposite to Alexis Diaz — he has the least amount of Extension on his pitches in all of baseball. So, again, this appears to be a case where the Stuff+ model needed more data to calibrate to an outlier pitcher like Moll.
Lucas Sims & Emilio Pagan
Change of Note: None!
Then, there’s Lucas Sims and Emilio Pagan. When you’re a good, high-Stuff+ pitcher like Sims or Pagan, sometimes the best “change” you can see in an update is no change at all.
Sims has long been a Stuff+ darling. His 4SFB & SL mix were always beloved by the model and they still continue to be (150.8 Stuff+ SL, 113 Stuff+ FF). Although his Location numbers are still lacking a bit, Sims’ electric arm in the back of bullpen is a nice form of certainty to have heading into 2024.
Pagan was also a pitcher that Stuff+ approved of coming into the season. He’s had one of the better 4SFBs in all of baseball for a long time and that continues to be the case (124.2 Stuff+). While his SPL doesn’t grade anywhere near Fernando Cruz’s (whose does?), Pagan demonstrated an ability to locate 3 additional breaking pitches (CUT, SPL, CURVE) along with his 4SFB — a skill that should come in handy when facing both LHB & RHB.
Ian Gibaut
Change of Note: A Sweeper! With a whopping 139.1 Stuff+ / 101.8 Location+
Speaking of Stuff+ darlings, it’s the British Bulldog himself. Stuff+ was one of the very first models to alert the masses that the Reds may have had a nice under-the-radar signing in Gibaut — and the latest update provides even more encouragement.
Gibaut is one of the rare pitchers in all of baseball who locates 4 pitches at above a 101.5 Location+ grade (FF 108.1, CUT 104.5, ST 101.8, CH 102.6). In addition to his elite Command, the reclassification of Gibaut’s Slider to a Sweeper (ST) has caused his Aggregate Stuff+ grade to jump as well.
Gibaut’s 139.1 Stuff / 101.8 Location is one of the single-best graded Sweepers in all of baseball. When you combine that with three other high-quality pitches that he locates at near-elite levels, you can see why folks are excited about Gibaut’s future in 2024.
Brent Suter
Change of Note: 100 FF Stuff+ -> 119.2 FF Stuff+
Here we go, Brent Suter. I was notably one of the few (only) people who had hesitations with the Suter signing initially... Stuff+ didn’t love his pitches last season and his “old school” peripherals (K-BB%) were trending in the wrong direction.
The latest Stuff+ update provides a bit of optimism in the signing, though. As part of the last update, pitches were adjusted to account for the impact of altitude on a pitch’s characteristics. Suter’s 4SFB consequently saw a pretty significant rise in Stuff.
While his other three pitches were still relatively lacking and his Location+ grades on all four of his pitches were subpar, a 4SFB grading out in the high-110s gives me some hope for a solid season from Suter in 2024.
Buck Farmer
Change of Note: 98 CH Stuff+ -> 117.9 CH Stuff+, 120 SL Stuff+ -> 126.2 SL Stuff+
Buck Farmer, or “Backwards Pitching Buck” as he affectionately came to be known in my Stuff+ Notes, had a bit of an up-and-down season in 2023. While he came out of the gate strong, it really seemed like the wheels began to spin off at the end of the season — likely due to the sheer amount of innings Farmer gave the Reds.
With the latest Stuff+ update adjusting positively to Farmer’s CH & SL, I think it’s fair to say the majority of his rough patch last season was driven by his loss of command due to overuse. While his 4SFB Stuff+ grade did drop pretty drastically (79 -> 64), the Reds choosing to re-sign Farmer this offseason gives me faith that they’ve identified a plan to have him attack hitters with his two high-quality pitches instead of his 4SFB.
Alex Young
Change of Note: 85 CH Stuff+ -> 118.9 CH Stuff+; 101 CURVE Stuff+ -> 114.3 CURVE Stuff+
Speaking of pitchers who started out the year strong, saw a drastic drop in production due to their workload, and saw their non-fastball pitches see an increase in Stuff+ grade in the new model… it’s Alex Young!
As mentioned above, Alex Young’s 2023 was pretty similar to Buck Farmer’s. His offseason was pretty similar as well. The Reds could have (pretty easily) decided to allow AY to test free agency, but they chose to tender Young a contract in arbitration and keep him in the organization. This leads me to believe that they’ve also identified a plan for Young to attack hitters with his CH & CURVE — hopefully with a bit of a reduced workload as well.
Tejay Antone
Change of Note: 108 SL Stuff+ -> 118.6 SL Stuff+
There’s a larger conversation that should probably be had about Tejay Antone’s return in 2023 that isn’t best suited for this column — notably how impressive it was for him to make it back on a big league mound. That being said, Antone’s overall Stuff+ was not quite at the levels we’d come to expect pre-injury (with 2 fastballs sitting below 90 Stuff+ & his CURVE sitting around 110).
However, I think it’s important to note that 1) the fact that Antone was able to return from his injury is an amazing feat in itself and 2) Antone came back with a Slider that graded pretty positively by Stuff+.
While “Captain Hook” is best known for his Curveball, Antone’s Slider actually had some of the most interesting results — posting a 118.6 Stuff+ and 105.7 Location+ on 18 pitches. If this is a trend Antone can sustain, we may see him find continued success pitching “backward” (like Buck Farmer or Alex Young).
Thanks for reading!
Stay tuned for my breakdowns on the Stuff+ update’s impacts on the Reds’ Pitching Prospects soon!
