May 3 Reds Stuff+ Notes: RP Recap
Note: format is Stuff+ / Location+ (Per Pitch) and Stuff+ / Location+ / Pitching+ (Aggregate)
Brent Suter (19.2 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 102 / 107
SNK 93 / 96
SL 69 / 111
CH 92 / 101
Aggregate
92 / 104 / 110
Alright, let's start this thing off with a nuanced discussion about Stuff+ outliers!
If you've followed these Notes all year, you know that we've seen Suter's Stuff+ values vary from anywhere in the 140s on his fastballs to the 40s and 50s on his secondaries. At the end of the day, I think his Pitching+ tells the story well. He's a smart, savvy pitcher who gets the most out of his arsenal.
Buck Farmer (15.2 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 49 / 96
SNK 63 / 84
SL 101 / 103
CH 107 / 97
Aggregate
82 / 95 / 96
Alright, more nuanced discussion about the intracies of the Stuff+ model!
Buck is another pitcher whose day-to-day Stuff readings have a large amount of variance especially on his secondaries. When Buck relies on his FF, his SL & CH tend to grade a lot worse. But when he goes SNK-first, they tend to grade in the 110-120 range. All in all, I think the lesson is that he's a CH/SL guy.
Emilio Pagan (12.1 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 116 / 104
CUT 83 / 112
SPL 103 / 101
Aggregate
103 / 106 / 107
Now we can start talking about year-over-year trends with a more straightforward pitcher.
Emilio Pagan was brought onto this team for his elite 4SFB and two legitimate secondaries. So far, it seems like we're about 90% of the way there. Last year, Pagan's FF was a 125 Stuff+ pitch (and the difference between 116 and 125 is pretty drastic for a 4SFB). I think he'll get better as the weather warms.
Alexis Diaz (12.0 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 117 / 94
SL 116 / 92
Aggregate
116 / 93 / 103
I think this tell the story of Alexis Diaz's season pretty well.
From the jump, Diaz has struggled with his command of both his FF and SL. However, we've seen flashes where both his FF and SL have jumped in Stuff and Location in a given game. Like Pagan, I think we're getting closer to Diaz being fully ramped up -- his FF was also a ~130 Stuff+ pitch last year too.
Fernando Cruz (11.2 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 96 / 90
CUT 85 / 90
SPL 141 / 107
Aggregate
113 / 98 / 103
I also think this tells the story of Fernando Cruz's season well too.
Fernando Cruz has one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball with his crazy split-fork-knuckle-ghost-ball. Full stop. He also does not have a very dominant primary fastball. The trend to watch the rest of the season is how the Reds choose to balance his pitch mix with this knowledge.
Lucas Sims (9.1 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 119 / 91
SL 138 / 90
CURVE 97 / 86
SPL 30 / 81
Aggregate
126 / 90 / 100
I'm going to be blunt with this one only because I know that you all know that I love Lucas Sims.
This level of command is absolutely unacceptable. Sims is one of the best pure Stuff pitchers in the game today, but that truly doesn't matter much if he's going to live in the 90 Location+ range. I'm really hoping this is just something that will be resolved as he ramps up but it's a concerning trend.
Justin Wilson (6.2 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 103 / 105
CUT 100 / 110
SL 127 / 100
SPL 45 / 76
Aggregate
105 / 104 / 105
I really, really like what Justin Wilson is cooking.
Legitimate command of 3 plus-pitches is a pretty hard thing to come by with left-handed relievers. Especially a FF/CUT/SL combo. The SPL is a fun addition, although I'm not sure how viable it is. We've also seen an increasing trend in Wilson's Stuff lately too... just stay healthy!
Carson Spiers (4.0 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 83 / 98
SNK 71 / 92
CUT 44/ 66
ST 138 / 109
CH 57 / 107
Aggregate
86 / 99 / 93
I wouldn't read a ton into Spiers one appearance and I almost hesistated to include it.
But I think this does give you a rough idea of what Spiers brings to the table. His FF/SNK/CUT have graded much better in AAA than they did in his one Reds appearance (it was cold & windy if I remember correctly), but his Sweeper is legit and his CH seems like a pitch he can throw consistently.
Sam Moll (3.0 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 115 / 89
SNK 53 / 105
ST 87 / 107
Aggregate
88 / 99 / 99
Sam Moll is always going to be a Stuff+ outlier (and I think he deserves more time to ramp up).
His Sweeper is one of the better LHPvLHH pitches in all of baseball so I'm a little surprised to see it grade so low. His FF & SNK have always graded strangely in the model too (even with the latest update) so I'm not reading a ton into those either. Idk, I'd watch his Loc+ and monitor the results.
Casey Legumina (2.0 IP)
Pitch Mix
FF 111 / 95
SL 108 / 85
CH 59 / 154
Aggregate
104 / 103 / 102
Despite a HR in the second inning of his appearance, I actually really liked Legumina's '24 debut.
His 4SFB appears to be up a tick in Stuff compared to last year and his command has at least taken a step forward in Louisville. All in all, I think there's the makings in here for a solid optionable reliever who will surely provide the Reds with some depth innings the rest of the season.
Thanks for reading!
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